KINK

Russia economic stress monitor

KINK stress index
—
/100
Calculating
30-day move—
6-month baseline—

Higher means greater combined fiscal, monetary, energy and financial strain. It is a pressure gauge—not a probability of collapse.

One year of pressure + six-month outlook

Solid = observed/estimated history. Dashed = scenario projection.

KINKProjectionRange
Using bundled data

What is driving KINK?

Current weighted contribution to the 0–100 composite.

Important: USD/RUB contributes only 5% because the market is managed and distorted by capital controls. Fiscal strain, government borrowing and physical energy disruption carry much more weight.

Six-month scenario controls

These alter the dashed projection, not the historical score.

Relief case—
Baseline—
Severe case—
Method, data quality and sources

KINK combines nine components: USD/RUB (5%), inverse Brent support (5%), CBR key rate (10%), ten-year OFZ yield (15%), inflation (10%), oil-and-gas revenue trend (15%), fiscal deficit pressure (15%), refinery/fuel disruption (15%), and shadow-fleet/payment friction (10%). Each input is normalised to a 0–100 stress scale, weighted, then lightly smoothed.

Automatic feeds are designed for Bank of Russia official exchange-rate, key-rate and OFZ yield pages, plus the Federal Reserve/EIA Brent series. Monthly revenue, fiscal and physical-disruption figures are deliberately editable because they are delayed, revised, definition-sensitive or assembled from reporting.

  • Bank of Russia: official daily exchange rates, key rate and government zero-coupon yield curve.
  • FRED / U.S. EIA: Europe Brent spot price.
  • Russian Finance Ministry releases and reputable reporting: oil-and-gas revenue and federal deficit.
  • IEA, CREA and reputable reporting: refining outages, fuel availability, exports and sanctions-evasion friction.

The bundled history is an editable starter estimate so the file displays immediately. Once deployed with the supplied Worker, automatic series are replaced with live observations. Never treat the projection as a forecast with statistical confidence.